I have a confession to make: I'm not sure how to analyze the Blackhawks right now.
Oh, they've been bad so far. I can tell you that. I could provide many stats as supporting evidence, too, but the standings suffice well enough. At 3-8-0, the Hawks have the second-worst record in the NHL.
I'm struggling to identify who deserves the bulk of the blame for the team's woes, though.
Is it general manager Kyle Davidson, who assembled this roster? Is it coach Jeff Blashill and his staff, whose systems don't seem to be working well? Or is it the players, who have been universally mistake-prone on the ice?
I'm also struggling to determine how problematic it is that they've been bad. Perhaps these early-season struggles were inevitable with a roster this young and recently assembled, or perhaps they're an indication this roster will never succeed.
And I'm really struggling to predict what will happen the rest of the season.
Perhaps Blashill's seat will heat up by January or February. That could then heat up Davidson's seat, since not many GMs get the privilege to hire and fire more than two different coaches.
Perhaps Hawks chairman Danny Wirtz's confidence in Davidson — whom he just awarded a contract extension in April — and patience with the slow rebuilding plan will hold strong. That could allow Davidson to maintain his belief in and patience with Blashill and keep fans' impatient (in some cases furious) cries falling on deaf ears.
Or perhaps the Hawks are about to turn things around — like the equally young Sharks did around this time last season — and all questions about seat temperatures will fade away naturally.
I would love to anticipate which hypothetical path will become reality, so I've been searching for any sorts of signals hidden within the first month of the season.
Every attempt to do so, however, ignites a tug-of-war between different thought processes in my brain. Here's how it usually goes:
The Hawks' results need to be taken with grains of salt because their schedule has been brutal. Almost every opponent has been a Stanley Cup contender. Plus, they've only played one game with both their No. 1 forward (Connor Bedard) and presumptive No. 1 defenseman (Bowen Byram) in the lineup.
But in hockey, bad teams should still beat good teams sometimes. The Predators just walloped the Avalanche 6-2 on Sunday. The Hawks haven't done that even once yet. Every team deals with injuries, too. And quantity-wise, the Hawks haven't actually had that many.
But the Hawks have been snakebitten. Their past three games (in which they've scored three goals) have been laden with missed opportunities. That should even out over time.
But most teams think they're unlucky — because scoring is really difficult. The Hawks' team shooting percentage (10.2%) is only one tick off league average. Meanwhile, they're 31st in shots on goal per game, and that's not luck.
But Blashill is a smart coach. He possesses the right combination of intelligence and flexibility to succeed tactically and the right combination of empathy and assertiveness to succeed developmentally. Many fans have convinced themselves otherwise, but he's impressive in-person.
But every NHL coach is smart and well-rounded. The bar is high in this league. And clearly Blashill's systems aren't working as intended, regardless of whose fault it is. The Hawks often look lost in defensive-zone coverage, have been awful with defensive-zone breakouts and haven't been effective on the forecheck.
But young studs like Anton Frondell, Roman Kantserov and Artyom Levshunov have already shown flashes of immense talent and should get more comfortable in the NHL over time. They have the potential to become stars alongside Bedard, and a few stars can dramatically change a team.
But it could take them a couple more years to reach stardom, and nobody wants to wait a couple more years — especially for outcomes that aren't guaranteed. That would be excruciating.
But my own expectation bias probably influences my perspective. I'm so accustomed to watching the Hawks lose (after covering five consecutive terrible seasons) that it's difficult for me to imagine them winning.
But that track record of losing genuinely can create a cycle that's difficult to escape. Confidence is real, and not only do the Hawks lack it relative to their peers, but opposing teams have good reasons to feel extra confident against them. Climbing a mountain is harder than defending it from the top.
I imagine most Hawks fans aren't encountering the same endless mental loop. I've already heard from many with fully formed strong opinions.
Most fans are affected by emotions, however. Take emotion out, and the logic — at least to me — balances on both sides.
The brutal-schedule element isn't about to stop complicating the evaluation process, either. After a brief respite against the Kings and Red Wings, the Hawks will enter another six-game murderer's row against Cup contenders. Things won't lighten up until the second half of November.
Conclusions generally become safer to draw as sample sizes get larger, however, so I'm hopeful the next few weeks will show me some light. I'll keep searching for signals in the meantime.
